The Kashim Shettima situation
by Simon Kolawole
Shettima and Tinubu during the 2023 presidential campaign
One of the most amazing things about Nigerian politics is how a tiny rumour develops wings and flies around the ecosystem, nestling in the minds of the people and gaining significant media mileage in no time. President Bola Tinubu had hardly been inaugurated in 2023 when rumours started gushing out that he had become estranged with Vice-President Kashim Shettima and was not going to retain him in 2027. I mean, they had barely spent one hour in office and we were already discussing second term with a sense of urgency! I concede that we live and die for politics in Nigeria, but sometimes I think some politicians get too excited over these things and start showing their hands too early.
I don’t know if Tinubu will retain Shettima in 2027 — such information is above my paygrade. It is his choice. Although the president and the vice-president are jointly elected according to our laws, a presidential candidate retains the right to pick the running mate. No contest is needed for that. Our laws place the choice of a running mate at the discretion of the presidential candidate, although he can decide to consult with the stakeholders. If Tinubu decides to say goodbye to Shettima in 2027, that will be it. The VP cannot go and secure an injunction from any court of law to bar the president from dropping him as his running mate. It is that simple. I honestly do not understand this brouhaha.
The noise was so loud recently that the All Progressives Congress (APC) had to issue a statement to debunk the rumour. The party’s national publicity secretary, Mr Felix Morka, said media reports were “speculative, untrue and utterly baseless”. I was the least surprised by the speculations because that is the nature of power. Being a vice-president during a second term could be strategic: you’re maybe just a heartbeat away from becoming president. It is, thus, not strange for those who have their eyes on it to sow seeds of discord between the president and the VP, raise questions about his loyalty, or even accuse him of deploying diabolical powers to incapacitate the president. It is all in the game.
In our history, though, no president has ever dropped his VP while going for a second term. President Shehu Shagari retained Dr Alex Ekwueme in 1983. They had an excellent working relationship and there was a strong theory that Shagari would support Ekwueme to be his successor. That was not to be as the military took over on the last day of 1983, so we would never know. President Olusegun Obasanjo, despite having a barely disguised conflict with Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, retained him in 2003. Obasanjo had declared his second term bid without naming his running mate and for months, the trending rumour was that he would replace Atiku with one of the northern governors.
Atiku fought back on the eve of the convention of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Abuja by saying he had three options: (1) to contest for the party’s presidential ticket against Obasanjo (2) to support Ekwueme and become his running mate (3) to be Obasanjo’s running mate. He said he was yet to make up his mind. He left the convention ground before voting started. The PDP governors held Obasanjo to ransom and forced him to bring Atiku back to the table, after which Obasanjo went to Atiku’s residence to plead with him to save the day. Eventually, the governors who led the rebellion paid the price as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) went after them.
The long and short of it was that Obasanjo grudgingly retained Atiku, but they immediately went to war after they were inaugurated for their second term. (That is the matter we have been trying to settle since). President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua did not live long enough to seek a second term, so we would never know if he would have retained Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan. On their part, Jonathan and Vice-President Namadi Sambo had a cordial relationship and there were no surprises that he retained Sambo in 2015, but they were defeated by President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in our first and only presidential election to be lost by an incumbent.
Buhari also retained his vice-president, Prof Yemi Osinbajo, in 2019 despite speculation that he was going to drop him. The Buhari/Osinbajo case was very interesting and some bits are already out there, but the major charge on Osinbajo’s head was that he was too ambitious when he acted as president during Buhari’s prolonged medical leave in 2017 and carried on as if the president would never return to his seat. There were rumours Buhari had been poisoned, that some prayer warriors had been gathered to facilitate his transition “to eternal glory”, plus the usual diabolical stuff. Regardless, Buhari retained him and both of them went on to serve out their eight years together.
It would seem retaining the vice-president is an unwritten code. That is why it will look odd if Shettima is dropped. Many have pointed to the fact that Tinubu had three different deputies when he was governor of Lagos state from 1999 to 2007, meaning he has a history in that regard. But the circumstances are not alike. His first deputy, Mrs Kofoworola Bucknor-Akerele, was engaged in an open fight with him until she finally lost out in December 2002. It was evidently an incompatible marriage. Her successor, Mr Femi Pedro, fell out with Tinubu because of his 2007 governorship ambition, but he was deputy governor for over four years before defecting to the Labour Party.
From where I am sitting, I cannot see any rift between Tinubu and Shettima. He has been holding the fort for Tinubu whenever he is so delegated — and many say he has been discharging the task with intelligence, courage and wisdom. He has represented Nigeria creditably well at international events, including at the UNGA. There are no reports of secret meetings between him and politicians to undermine the president. I do not pretend to know what goes on in Aso Rock, but I do not get the impression that Shettima has fallen out of favour with the president. Sure, some people around Tinubu might be whispering nasty things to him about Shettima, but that is part of the power game.
I have stayed long enough in the media to know that when you start reading certain stories, there is an agenda. Suddenly, there is a campaign that Tinubu has to pick a northern Christian in 2027 in order to pacify US President Donald Trump over accusations of Christian genocide. Tinubu had picked Shettima, a fellow Muslim, as running mate in the last election and defeated Atiku, the homeboy in northern Nigeria. But it is now being proposed that he should pick a northern Christian to run with (likely against Atiku again) in 2027. Otherwise, it is projected, Trump would give Tinubu the Maduro treatment by kidnapping him and enforcing a regime change. To me, that is just political tactic.
Just last week, someone “authoritatively” told me Shettima will be dropped because he is the founder of Boko Haram. “When he was governor of Borno state, he created Boko Haram to fight Jonathan,” she declared, with a swag. I had heard this before. A friend shared a similar post to me before the 2023 general election. I told him Boko Haram would kill Shettima instantly if they could lay their hands on him. I cited instances when they went after him, even as governor. My friend, whom I had known as far back as 1994, got angry. He accused me of supporting Tinubu and asked me to write this down: Tinubu will never be president of Nigeria in Jesus name! He stopped talking to me.
I get confused at times over this Boko Haram thing. So many people have been accused of being the founder, depending on the ongoing emotions and the agenda. Ahead of the 2011 elections, members of the PDP who had insisted that power must remain in the north and that Jonathan should not run for president were accused of being Boko Haram founders. It was said that they wanted to destabilise the country and stop Jonathan. After Jonathan got his party’s ticket, Buhari, his main opponent, was said to be the Boko Haram founder, so much so he was named as their negotiator in proposed talks with the government. He rejected the nomination, alleging mischief.
Things became even more bemusing ahead of the 2015 elections when Jonathan himself was accused of being the brain behind Boko Haram. Some of his accusers said he created the group to destroy the north, declare a state of emergency and suspend the elections in order to remain in power beyond 2015. Gen Azubuike Ihejirika, an officer and a gentleman who served as chief of army staff between 2010 and 2014, was also accused of being behind Boko Haram. He had to clear his name in court. Around the same time, Senator Modu Sheriff, former Borno governor of Borno state who had defected to the PDP, was accused of being the founder of the terrorist group. So puzzling!
Before the 2023 presidential election, accusing fingers started pointing at Shettima, who, as a matter of fact, was a manager at Zenith Bank Plc when the late Mohammed Yusuf founded Boko Haram in 2002 — a group of zealots who were critical of the political establishment. They morphed into a full-blown terrorist group following the military crackdown on them in July 2009. With 2027 polls now approaching, fingers are pointing at Shettima again. Indeed, if there was evidence that Shettima was the Boko Haram founder, my guess is that it would have been leaked to the media or officially made public by the Jonathan administration. That was some low-hanging fruit for Jonathan in 2015.
Having observed and reported political intrigues in Nigeria for decades, I would say there is nothing going on now that is unusual. We know all these things. Nevertheless, I will still be a bit surprised if Tinubu decides to drop Shettima on the account of these speculations and conjectures. It is quite remarkable that the APC has issued a strong denial of the rumour that Tinubu wants to drop him, but we all know that these things mean nothing in the game of politics. If Tinubu decides to drop him, however, I would simply advise the vice-president to walk up to the president and thank him wholeheartedly for the privilege to serve Nigeria. Nigerians can then find other topics to discuss.
AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…
THIS IS AMERICA
America happened to Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old intensive care nurse, on January 24, 2026 when he was shot several times and killed by agents of the United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The official cover-up was astonishing, but for the bystanders who captured the atrocity on video. A few weeks earlier, America had also happened to Renée Good, who was shot and killed by the same CBP officials in a country once reputed for civil liberty and justice. What readily comes to mind is Childish Gambino’s song, ‘This is America’ — a powerful commentary on the systemic crisis rocking the country. May America never happen to us. Amen.
TURKEY TALE
On Tuesday, President Bola Tinubu stumbled as he walked alongside President Recep Erdogan during a welcome ceremony in Ankara, Turkey. It instantly made headlines in Nigeria, but Mrs Abike Dabiri-Erewa, chairman of the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NiDCOM), apparently thinks it should have been blacked out. She said Turkish officials were “shocked to learn that it was an issue in Nigerian media/blogs… One of them described it as ‘silly and mischievous’, and reiterated how their country was excited about the incredible success of the visit”. Of course, it is not their president that fell. For the record, the fall was well reported by Turkish media. It was also on the BBC. Newsworthy.
BURKINA SUFFER
Are you following events in Burkina Faso? The military junta, led by Captain Ibrahim Traore, has just dissolved all political parties and repealed the laws governing them, saying “the great and important decision is part of the re-founding of the state”. Anyone who is familiar with the history of military rule and democracy in Africa can easily decode what will happen next: Traore will someday announce a transition to civil rule, form new parties, drop his uniform, and contest to become a democratically elected president. He will win, sure. In the first phase, there will be a term limit. The constitution will thereafter be amended to make him life president of Burkina Faso. If you know, you know. Africa!
NO COMMENT
Senator Adams Oshiomhole, the man formerly known as comrade, was on TV recently quoting unnamed Nigerians as complaining that food is becoming too cheap. “The truth is this, we promised radical reforms,” the former governor of Edo state, who was also at some point the national chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), said. “There are Nigerians now who are saying food is becoming too cheap.” I am not doubting his source, just that I am yet to hear such a complaint from anybody. He added: “I even heard some opposition member saying the president is manipulating food prices to crash. So, they are angry that food prices are down.” Angry? Hahahaha.
Credit: TheCable.
