Emmanuel Oladesu, Deputy Editor
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has contested for president seven times, but without success, despite his vast field experience, formidable structure and enormous resources at his disposal. What next after losing his appeal at the Supreme Court? Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines his struggle for the much elusive presidential power and options available to him and his platform, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
He exuded much confidence ahead of the poll. It was not without a cogent reason. Those rooting for him thought his time had finally come. Indeed, the growing perception was also that the election offered him the last chance for a possible breakthrough.
His supporters were therefore, full of bravado, claiming that the veteran presidential contender was the man to beat.
He was not underrated by other candidates, judging by his antecedents. That could have been suicidal on the slippery political field. Being perhaps, the most senior politician in the race, others naturally expected a big fight from an experienced actor and political warhorse, who had the wherewithal to sustain a titanic electoral battle.
A long distance runner, he could never be intimidated at that stage, being a hero of many political battles, when the majority of those on the ballot were not on the radar.
His political life, no doubt, has been full of ups and downs. But, it was generally acknowledged that he paraded a very intimidating credentials. In and out of politics, he was held in esteem by many people.
Atiku Abubakar, retired custom officer, shrewd businessman and former vice president, feared none. He had no rival, if political attainment was the sole criterion. As former number two citizen, he was just a stone throw from the highest office he had coveted for three decades. He was never discouraged by past failures.
Full of resilience, hope has been an elixir of life. Never a man to desert the battlefield, his weapon is courage, the resolve to succeed in the face of odds and a belief in personal ability.
During the electioneering, he was in a familiar terrain, repeating what he had done, at least, six times. The general feeling that it may be his last time even provoked an anxiety that resulted into a renewed determination.
Throughout the campaigns, the Waziri Adamawa, candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), posed as a gerontocratic standard bearer with the winning formula.
He was momentarily seized by nostalgia as an undisputed heir apparent to the previously real, but now imaginary, political stool of Tafida Shehu Yar’Adua, making copious references to past exploits and triumphs of that formidable structure, the PDM machinery of old, which was, once upon a time, a strong factor in the PDP.
He was also able to adapt to populist slogans, promising a rescue mission, a battle to recover the country from the grip of the Daura-born president who, in his view, had mismanaged the economy for eight years. He reiterated a commitment to a greater Nigeria, where he said he had built bridges.
Atiku worked hard, despite his advanced age. He traversed the six geo-political zones with his message of unification and development of private enterprise, reminiscent of his privatisation inclination while he was deputy president. He slso promised restructuring of the polity, equity and justice in a new Nigeria.
His followers, like those of Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), were glued to their peculiar drawing board, the social media, where they consistently fired salvos at the candidate of the ruling party.
But, at the close of poll, the coveted crown eluded the political megastar. His calculations crumbled. He got over seven million votes, which were insufficient to secure the key to Aso Villa, Abuja seat of power.
The poll, won by his long standing friend-turned rival, President Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), who got over eight million votes, is now history. So are the labours, political investment and permutations of the defeated colossus, which have paled into daydreaming and illusion of hope.
For Atiku, the journey of 30 years ended without realising a lifetime ambition for political control. What is most striking to his camp is that the power that eluded him landed on the palm of a first time bidder, who as a newbreed senator in the aborted Third Republic, served as a statutory delegate to the 1993 presidential primary where Atiku was a presidential aspirant.
Although he lost, some aspects of his style are commendable. His personality has filled public consciousness as a material for leadership. He has never lost focus; he has been consistent in the pursuit of personal ambition and refused to be discouraged by vicissitude of political life. Always on the firing line, he was never afraid of hurdles or obstacles. In trying moments, he demonstrated a reputation for seeking refuge in the court, which on some occasions, saved him from political liquidation.
When his former boss and tormentor, President Olusegun Obasanjo, tried to prevent Atiku from contesting in 2007, the court came to his rescue by restoring his right to seek the highest office.
However, three of the six futile attempts in 2007, 2019 and 2023 triggered protracted litigations, which the Supreme Court could not resolve in his favour. In the latest one, the apex court even declared that his petition lacked basis and merit, translating into the deduction that he merely approached the court in exercise of his fundamental right to disagree with the results announced by the umpire. Nothing more.
At 77, Atiku, remains a household name in Nigeria. He came, he saw, and he struggled. But, as it turned out, he lacked the magic wand to conquer, despite his immeasurable field experience, thereby forfeiting, at least for now, an opportunity to rule the most populous African country.
It is a major tragedy for his party, which, having been left in the cold for eight years, could not re-capture power, despite its earlier dream of ruling for an uninterrupted 60 years.
Atiku never bargained for these multiple setbacks when he joined the foray almost 35 years ago. Although the road to political fame has been rough, he had also come across as a brave, bold and tough fellow, who having placed his hand on the plough, never looked back.
The corollary to the competitive spirit is antagonism, which is a pastime for the political class. The first test came during the preparation for governorship election in Adamawa, where he tried to slug it out with Dr. Bala Takaya at the primary. That was in 1991. The aspiration of the two aspirants polarised the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the state. The same scenario played out in Lagos State when the camps of Prof. Femi Agbalajobi and Chief Dapo Sarumi were at loggerheads.
While majority of members believed Takaya won the shadow poll, the SDP national leadership declared Atiku winner. Crisis broke out in the chapter. Consequently, military President Ibrahim Babangida cancelled the primary and disqualified the two of them. Their disqualified cleared the path for the emergence of Michica as governor.
In the aborted Third Republic, Atiku came into national limelight when he challenged the late Chief Moshood Abiola to a duel at the historic Jos convention of the SDP. According to observers, he was running for the highest office by proxy. The main issue at that time was his political mentor, the late Major General Shehu Yar’Adua, who later asked him to step down for Abiola during that tensed moment of horse trading, wheeling and dealing.
From that moment, he was largely perceived as Yar’Adua’s altar ego, business partner and deputy captain of the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), who earned the trust of his leader through his display of loyalty.
Although he wanted to be Abiola’s running mate, SDP governors insisted on Alhaji Babagana Kingibe, former national chairman of the party, who also lost to Abiola at the primary. Whether Yar’Adua and Atiku were totally committed to Abiola’s victory and the quest for the validation of his annulled June 12, 1993 mandate has remained in the realm of conjecture.
Determined and resolute, Atiku returned to Adamawa in 1999, contested for governor and won. But, fate catapulted him to the position of number two citizen, as Obasanjo preferred him to former Kano State Governor Alhaji Mohammadu Rimi and former Ahmadu Bello University (ABU) Vice Chancellor Prof. Ango Abdullahi. Obasanjo settled for Atiku in memory of Yar’Adua, his Chief of Staff Supreme Headquarters while he was military ruler and master strategic, who set up the PDM.
As vice president, Atiku was not a typical spare tyre. He was very powerful and highly influential. He was in charge of the economy. When a minister, who is a political scientist, in a private memo, warned OBJ about the grave consequence of a powerful deputy in a presidential system, the former president ignored the warning. The heat was turned on the minister. He lost his seat in the last Federal Executive Council (FEC). An Atiku loyalist from his state took his place in the cabinet.
The former vice president was the toast of many PDP governors. He also maintained a culture of friendship without political borders. During his recent world press conference, he recalled his fraternity with Tinubu, who he had alerted to an impending doom in the Southwest, a fact that motivated the former Lagos governor, unlike his other five colleagues, to work harder to survive the 2003 political earthquake.
Being a better civilian than his boss, many PDP chieftains saw him as a better presidential material ahead of 2003 primary. Atiku was said to have the backing of many governors, including Orji Kalu (Abia) and James Ibori (Delta). Advertisements in the media urged Obasanjo to emulate South African President Nelson Mandela, who was contented with one term. He was urged to quit and become a statesman and adviser in blissful retirement. The sponsors were unknown.
But, Atiku’s feeble attempt was nevertheless, a risky venture, which eventually led to distrust and parting of ways. The former president was enraged. But, he pretended. He was said to have either prostrated or knelt down for his deputy at the venue of the primary as he implored him to opt out of the race.
If Atiku had contested at the convention, may be, he would have won the ticket. In fact, in his letter to the former vice president, Kalu angrily told him that he bungled an opportunity, thereby exposing his supporters in the party to danger.
Henceforth, the presidency and the PDP became hot for Atiku. He was de-robed as vice president. He became a proper spare tyre. Even, an administrative panel headed by former FCT Minister Mallam Nasir el- Rufai indicted him. He was in court six times fighting the threat to his ambition.
When he defected from the PDP in 2007, he sought refuge in the defunct Action Congress (AC), led by Chief Bisi Akande. His point of contact was Tinubu, who in the spirit of “one good turn deserves another,” persuaded the progressive family to endorse him. The defector was branded as a courageous fighter and a democrat, unlike his dictatorial and power-loaded boss.
Atiku ran for president, but without success. He was defeated by the younger brother of his mentor, the late President Umaru Yar’Adua. Atiku’s runnning mate then was Senator Ben Obi.
Despite entreaties by Tinubu, Atiku went to court to protest against the younger Yar’Adua’s victory. Tinubu’s belief was that being a dependable ally of Gen. Yar’Adua, he should have honoured the memory of his former benefactor by conceding defeat to his biological brother. But, those who backed Atiku’s option of litigation believed he had a genuine point because the poll was marred by some irregularities.
The court in a split judgment affirmed Yar’Adua’s victory, and in humility, the former president, after acknowledging that a flawed election brought him to power, embarked on electoral reforms.
For Atiku, the attainment of presidential power is critical to self-actualisation. Moreover, his right to contest was sacrosanct as a citizen who met the eligibility criteria.
After the 2007 unsuccessful attempt, he retraced his steps to the PDP, which he had de-marketed during the poll. The AC family felt betrayed. Many chieftains, particularly from the Southwest, complained that he jumped ship without informing party leaders. Atiku lost the confidence of a political family that tried to salvage his career when the hand of Obassnjo was heavy on him.
In 2011, Atiku threw his hat into the ring again. At the regional selection process, he defeated Gen. Babangida, the evil genius who had disqualified him as a governorship aspirant in Adamawa.
But, he could not cross the next hurdle. At the PDP primary in Abuja, he was defeated by President Goodluck Jonathan, who had the backing of Obasanjo, the political coach-in-chief. His erstwhile Southwest friends also fielded Mallam Nuhu Ribadu to run on the platform of ACN.
Many complained that Atiku, having lost the PDP ticket, never showed a substantial commitment to Jonathan’s victory at the presidential poll.
A serial defector, Atiku later left for the APC after the formation of the party by the legacy platforms – the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), the Congres for Progressive Change (CPC), a faction of the PDP, and All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA). It was at a time his former allies in the Southwest have already given their word to Major General Muhammadu Buhari.
During the 2015 primary, he contested along with Buhari, Senator Rabiu Kwakwanso, Owelle Rochas Okorocha and the late Sam Nda Isaiah, publisher of Leadership newspaper.
When the Ebora Owu heard about Atiku’s ambition, he retorted:”I dey laugh o.” Atiku’s detractors alluded to how OBJ also tried to dent his image in his book:”My Watch.” Obasanjo alleged: “What I did not know, which came out glaringly later, was his parental background which was somewhat shadowy, his propensity to corruption, his tendency to disloyalty, his inability to say and stick to the truth all the time, a propensity for poor judgment, his belief and reliance on marabouts, his lack of transparency, his trust in money to buy his way out on all issues and his readiness to sacrifice morality, integrity, propriety truth and national interest for self and selfish interest”
It was the height of character assassination, which elicited condemnation from die-hard Atiku supporters. Atiku, in response, dismissed it as an unwarranted campaign of calumny, saying that he has never been convicted for corruption by any court.
At the primary, he came third, trailing Kwakwanso. Gen. Buhari, who was elected as candidate, won the presidential poll. Consistent with his style, Atiku never played any crucial role in Buhari’s election.
Later, the former vice president said goodbye to the APC. His foes chided him for impatience and political harlotry. He was unperturbed by what his media aides described as the antics of critics.
He unfolded his presidential ambition, thereby drawing attention to himself as an opposition leader. By the time he returned to the PDP, he had revived his old structures and networks across the six geo-political zones. However, when he urged the PDM members to regroup, he met a stiff resistance. Of course, they were scattered across major parties like sheep without shepherd.
Undaunted, Atiku braced up for a tempestuous journey to 2019. When he left APC, Obasanjo who had fallen out with former President Buhari, wrote to him not to run for a second term. Atiku saw a window of opportunity because zoning to the North was not tampered with. He hurriedly close ranks with Obasanjo, who instantly ate his words, and turned around to sell his candidature to Nigerians.
Atiku got the PDP ticket and named Peter Obi, a defector from APGA, as his running mate. Prominent Southeast PDP leaders kicked, saying that he never consulted them about his choice. For the first time in many years, the former vice president also travelled to the United States.
To warm himself to the politically conscious and highly enlightened people of the Southwest, he campaigned to them on the borrowed platform of restructuring. His campaign manager was former Ogun State Governor Gbenga Daniel, who is now an APC Senator. But, already a household name in Nigeria, Atiku needed no introduction.
Atiku broke Afenifere ranks. One of its leaders, Chief Ayo Adebanjo, openly supported the Adamawa chief, based on his promise of devolution.
The eminent politician displayed a wider experience about mobilisation during the 2019 primary and general election. His ambition polarised the polity.
Two things worked in favour of Atiku. Buhari’s public rating appeared to have dropped because he could not deliver adequately on his promise of change. Also, Atiku had tentacles across the zones which he revived.
He gave a good fight. But, the presidency still eluded him.
Rejecting the results by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), he went to court, raising the issue of certificate. But, the Supreme Court dismissed his appeal against Buhari’s victory.
After the judgment, it was alleged that Atiku abandoned the PDP and went to Dubai, United Emirates Republic.
Predictably, he returned ahead of 2023 electioneering. Eight years outside power, PDP was battling with adjustment difficulties. It’s leadership was weak and it was evident that politics of affection was on the eclipse. Its crowded presidential primary unleashed apprehension on the divided platform.
To observers, Atiku’s involvement in the race was controversial. Tension had enveloped the party over zoning, rotation or power shift, which its former deputy national chairman, Chief Bode George, described as its pillar, source of strength and basis for unity. While PDP knew that zoning had been internalised by members as part of it core traditions, Atiku perceived it as an anomaly, if he would not be the only and direct beneficiary.
Not willing to sacrifice his bid, he found protection in the constitution, which affirmed his right to vie.
It was evident that the divided PDP was on the way to disaster right from its presidential convention when some Generals from the North were said to be dictating to some delegates from the region to step down for Atiku. Their strategy failed. While former Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal eventually stepped down for him, other aggrieved stalwarts who perceived him as a common enemy later teamed up against him.
As Ayu hailed Tambuwal as the hero of the convention, G5 was enraged. Reconciliation broke down.
To analysts, Atiku lacked an accurate understanding of the dymamics of the party. The PDP of Obasanjo, Tony Anenih and Ahmadu Ali era contrasted with the latter-day PDP of Nyesom Wike, Seyi Makinde, Bala Mohammed and Ayodele Fayose era. While the ruling PDP of old was blessed with a strong leadership, it has broken into smaller centres of influence under the governors. Things had fallen apart and the centre could no longer hold.
As Atiku and his friend, Senator Iyorchia Ayu, embattled national chairman, bragged about being the founding fathers who should be deferred to by young turfs in the party, the five governors-Sam Orton (Benue State), Makinde (Oyo), Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu), Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia) and Wike (Rivers)-only saw them as spent forces and clogs in the wheel of cohesion.
Their condition for truce was the resolution of the crisis of marginalisation and exclusion. The party leadership turned a deaf ear. I response to the founding fathers’ mentality, Wike retorted:”The young shall grown. They small boys of yesterday are now men.”
Atiku held on to one man, Ayu, who refused to step down as chairman, as previously agreed, only to in the process of rigidity lose five governors.
Ahead of the historic poll, the platform wobbled on in disarray. Campaign spokesman Senator Dino Malaye proclaimed Atiku as a unifier. Commodore George, Lagos PDP leader, who disagreed, queried:”Atiku is from the North. The national chairman of the party, Ayu, is from the North. The chairman of the campaign organisation, Tambuwal, is from the North. What manner of unifier is Atiku?”
The G-5 never left PDP. Yet, its members refused to work for the party. It was a classic case of anti-party rebellion.
Although Atiku was the more formidable northern candidate on the ballot, the strongholds of the PDP across the zones were up for grab. In that period of scramble for votes, Senator Rabiu Kwakwanso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) dominated Kano State while the Southeast embraced the son of the soil, Obi of LP.
The appeal to regional interest also failed. Atiku was dazed by the votes garnered from the three northern geo-political zones by President Tinubu.
While PDP has continued to lick the wound of defeat, G-5 members have consolidated their romance with the PDP by attracting appointments from President Tinubu, and to Atiku’s consternation, it has been difficult to expel them.
Characteristic of Atiku, he rejected the poll results and took Tinubu and APC to court. He cried foul, saying that he was rigged out. The contest shifted from ballot box to the temple of justice. Sources said it was the most expensive presidential litigation in the history of the country.
The election tribunal, after the legal fireworks, dismissed Atiku’s petition and affirmed Tinubu’s victory during the February 25 poll.
Dissatisfied, the PDP candidate appealed to the highest court in the land. He accused the president of certificate forgery. He also went to the court of opinion where he was being cheered by armchair critics and social media miscreants, urging gullible Nigerians do away with an imaginary dubious president. He said Tinubu should reintroduce himself to Nigerians who voted for him.
Atiku’s emissaries, who went to Chicago State University (CSU) on wild goose chase, came back empty handed. At that point, many stakeholders chided the elderstatesman for political desperation.
As his supporters insisted that the president should respond to the forgery query, concerned Nigerians turned the heat on Atiku, challenging him to explain how Sadiq appeared on one of his certificates. On that note, the court of public opinion became divided.
Brushing aside sentiments, the Supreme Court relied on law, reason and logic in doing justice to the case. In an unanimous judgment by the seven-man panel delivered by Justice John Okoro, the appeal was dismissed for lack of merit and President Tinubu’s victory was affirmed. The verdict is final.
Atiku has not unfolded his next plans. However, many supporters doubted that he will bow out. Will he return to the drawing board? Will he play the role of an effective opposition leader? Can he rally other opposition parties behind him?
He has appealed to these smaller parties join him in a coalition against the APC. What is the prospect of a rainbow coalition?
His party, PDP, thirsts for a credible leadership that can forge unity and cohesion. Can Atiku lead the way and be the symbol of reconciliation? Can he reorganise the platform and turn it into a vibrant and election winning machinery?
The PDP is currently down. But, it cannot be ruled out in the scheme of things. Although it has lost federal power, it can boast of loyal governors, federal legislators, state lawmakers and other fanatical members in many states. APC can only ignore this fact to its peril.
By 2027, Atiku will be 81. Will he retire from politics Will he run or sponsor a candidate?
Time will tell.
